Australian Open day 12 preview: US Open rematch the headline

Four women are left standing in the 2024 Australian Open singles draw and, if the betting is to be believed, the winner will come from Thursday’s first semi-final featuring defending champion Aryna Sabalenka and her US Open conqueror Coco Gauff.

Sabalenka has been in dominant form in her five Melbourne matches and is 4/6 to retain the title while Gauff is a 5/2 outright chance, with the winner of that tie facing Qinwen Zheng or Dayana Yastremska in Saturday’s final.

Zheng, a 9/2 chance for Australian Open glory, and Yastremska, on offer at 14/1, are both aiming for a first Grand Slam final appearance after taking full advantage of the early exits of Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek.

Sabalenka set for swift revenge over Gauff
What Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka
Where Australian Open, Melbourne Park
When Thursday 25th January
How to watch bet365 Sports Live Streaming, Eurosport & discovery+
Odds Coco Gauff 7/4, Aryna Sabalenka 4/9
Sabalenka’s mental fortitude has long been the subject of debate and a semi-final clash with Gauff, who has won three of their last four meetings including in the aforementioned US Open final, will test the Belarusian’s resolve.

However, Sabalenka demonstrated her improved mindset in Melbourne last season when rallying from a set down to defeat Rybakina in a pulsating final, and she should approach this match full of confidence given how strong she has looked over the last fortnight.

The 25-year-old has bulldozed her way past Ella Seidel, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Lesia Tsurenko, Amanda Anisimova and Barbora Krejcikova to reach the last four, winning 2-0 on each occasion and dropping just 16 games in total.

Gauff presents a much tougher test on paper, but the American has not faced a top-30 player in this tournament and she was nowhere near her best in her 7-6 6-7 6-2 quarter-final victory over Marta Kostyuk.

It’s testament to Gauff’s ability that she can reach Grand Slam semi-finals without hitting top gear, but she has described herself as having her “C-game” and that is unlikely to cut it against Sabalenka, who deserves to be 4/9 favourite with Gauff the 7/4 underdog.

The American did not serve well against Kostyuk, registering a first-service percentage of just 54% and clocking up nine double faults. She absolutely has to improve because her second serve is likely to come under a barrage of blows from Sabalenka.

There are questions for the reigning champion to answer after she wilted from a set up in New York last year, but she also crushed Gauff 6-4 6-0 in Indian Wells in March and, on the balance of their Melbourne performances, could well do something similar.

“After the US Open, I really wanted that revenge. It’s always a great battle against Coco, with really great fights. I’m happy to play her, and I’m super excited to play that semi-final,” said Sabalenka after her victory over Krejcikova.

With the Minsk native seemingly in an ultra-determined mood, the 5/4 on offer that she wins in straight sets makes plenty of appeal.

Tennis
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Zheng poised to end qualifier’s unlikely run
What Dayana Yastremska vs Qinwen Zheng
Where Australian Open, Melbourne Park
When Thursday 25th January
How to watch bet365 Sports Live Streaming, Eurosport & discovery+
Odds Dayana Yastremska 7/4, Qinwen Zheng 4/9
While two of the WTA Tour’s big four do battle in the bottom half of the draw, the makeup of the top-half semi-final is much more of a surprise with Zheng 4/9 to progress at the expense of Yastremska.

Li Na is the only Chinese player to win a Grand Slam singles title having triumphed in both the 2011 French Open and 2014 Australian Open and Zheng, on a steady rise up the rankings in recent seasons, has her sights on emulating her compatriot.

The 21-year-old world no.15 has had to battle in Melbourne at times, requiring three sets to see off Ashlyn Krueger, Yafan Wang and quarter-final opponent Anna Kalinskaya, but her semi-final appearance is the culmination of a run of superb results from September onwards.

After finding Sabalenka too strong in the quarters at the US Open, Zheng dusted herself off to win gold at the Asian Games and a title in Zhengzhou in her homeland before reaching the Elite Trophy final in Zhuhai.

She has been a coming force on the WTA Tour for some time and, once the big guns were sent packing, she was always one of the more likely beneficiaries from the top section.

Yastremska’s return to prominence has been more surprising, but the Ukrainian qualifier is a former top-25 player who is clearly capable of much better results than her current ranking (93rd) suggests.

Having played eight matches to reach this stage, Yastremska could start to run on empty and Zheng has the class to punish her if that is indeed the case.

However, the Ukrainian remains dangerous and, given Zheng’s propensity for being drawn into three-set matches, backing the favourite to prevail by a 2-1 scoreline could pay off at 13/5.

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